Ankit Singh "Khadagdhari"
Although Trump's return could be challenging for India from a trade perspective, it could prove strategically beneficial. To understand the true significance of Trump's second term, we must look beyond emotions and consider its potential implications. In international relations, decisions are not driven by emotions alone; instead, shared interests and policies between countries determine the direction of their relationships. How Trump’s second term will impact India will only become clear once he assumes office in January.
Trump may now face more significant obstacles to achieving his goals, particularly concerning China and multilateralism. There is a possibility that the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza could be resolved through multilateral coordination or subdued to restore normalcy and minimize disruptions to global trade.
Despite deep internal divisions within the Democratic Party, Trump’s vision remains clear, and to understand it, we must carefully observe the changes happening within the U.S. Both the U.S. and India are nations that, at the start of this century, were searching for a new direction, leading to rapid shifts in political ideologies.
Inspired by his first term, we may see the U.S. increase its oil and gas exports to major energy markets like China, India, and Europe. This move could aid in revitalizing the American economy, much like the positive impact of shale oil production earlier.
However, Trump’s trade stance could have some adverse effects on India, such as potential job losses and stricter visa policies. The U.S. may seek agreements with China and India to export crude oil, giving these countries an opportunity to strengthen their global positions with minimal American interference.
Another aspect could involve Saudi Arabia and other major oil-exporting nations needing to cut prices to retain market share. If India resumes crude oil imports from Iran, it would signify that the U.S. has acknowledged multilateralism as a new global reality.
Regarding the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts, the U.S. will need to consider its role and the path toward resolution. Meanwhile, India has managed to shield itself by skillfully circumventing Western sanctions on Russia.
Finally, Trump’s second term may spark discussions on electoral reforms within the U.S. The need to strengthen internal frameworks in the U.S. could benefit India as well. Despite Trump’s tough trade stance, his "China Plus One" strategy could open new doors for India. Under this strategy, companies would reduce their dependence on China and expand their operations in countries like India, leading to increased investments and supply chain growth.
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